This is partly due to technical and statistical improvements, such as increased access to high-performance computing facilities and the integration of statistical methods that help to quantify uncertainty in large-scale simulations. Within this context, scholars are increasingly interested and involved in improving the theoretical and empirical foundation of simulation models to enhance their realism and accuracy in representing human behavior.
One of the goals of the event is to assess the current state of the art, to further advance the development of simulation methods, and to apply these methods in demography and population studies. Beyond this, the event aims at providing a space for participants to interact, collaborate, and learn in order to inspire new ideas, hone skills, but also have fun.
For time-stepped simulations, there are two main classes:. Equations define the relationships between elements of the modeled system and attempt to find a state in which the system is in equilibrium.
The Simulation of Human Fertility
Such models are often used in simulating physical systems, as a simpler modeling case before dynamic simulation is attempted. Formerly, the output data from a computer simulation was sometimes presented in a table or a matrix showing how data were affected by numerous changes in the simulation parameters. The use of the matrix format was related to traditional use of the matrix concept in mathematical models. However, psychologists and others noted that humans could quickly perceive trends by looking at graphs or even moving-images or motion-pictures generated from the data, as displayed by computer-generated-imagery CGI animation.
Although observers could not necessarily read out numbers or quote math formulas, from observing a moving weather chart they might be able to predict events and "see that rain was headed their way" much faster than by scanning tables of rain-cloud coordinates. Such intense graphical displays, which transcended the world of numbers and formulae, sometimes also led to output that lacked a coordinate grid or omitted timestamps, as if straying too far from numeric data displays.
Similarly, CGI computer simulations of CAT scans can simulate how a tumor might shrink or change during an extended period of medical treatment, presenting the passage of time as a spinning view of the visible human head, as the tumor changes. Other applications of CGI computer simulations are being developed to graphically display large amounts of data, in motion, as changes occur during a simulation run.
Generic examples of types of computer simulations in science, which are derived from an underlying mathematical description:. In social sciences, computer simulation is an integral component of the five angles of analysis fostered by the data percolation methodology,  which also includes qualitative and quantitative methods, reviews of the literature including scholarly , and interviews with experts, and which forms an extension of data triangulation. Graphical environments to design simulations have been developed.
Special care was taken to handle events situations in which the simulation equations are not valid and have to be changed. The open project Open Source Physics was started to develop reusable libraries for simulations in Java , together with Easy Java Simulations , a complete graphical environment that generates code based on these libraries.
Taiwanese Tone Group Parser  is a simulator of Taiwanese tone sandhi acquisition. In practical, the method using linguistic theory to implement the Taiwanese tone group parser is a way to apply knowledge engineering technique to build the experiment environment of computer simulation for language acquisition. The reliability and the trust people put in computer simulations depends on the validity of the simulation model , therefore verification and validation are of crucial importance in the development of computer simulations.
Another important aspect of computer simulations is that of reproducibility of the results, meaning that a simulation model should not provide a different answer for each execution. Although this might seem obvious, this is a special point of attention in stochastic simulations , where random numbers should actually be semi-random numbers. An exception to reproducibility are human-in-the-loop simulations such as flight simulations and computer games.
Here a human is part of the simulation and thus influences the outcome in a way that is hard, if not impossible, to reproduce exactly. Vehicle manufacturers make use of computer simulation to test safety features in new designs. By building a copy of the car in a physics simulation environment, they can save the hundreds of thousands of dollars that would otherwise be required to build and test a unique prototype. Engineers can step through the simulation milliseconds at a time to determine the exact stresses being put upon each section of the prototype.
Computer graphics can be used to display the results of a computer simulation. Animations can be used to experience a simulation in real-time, e. In some cases animations may also be useful in faster than real-time or even slower than real-time modes. For example, faster than real-time animations can be useful in visualizing the buildup of queues in the simulation of humans evacuating a building. Furthermore, simulation results are often aggregated into static images using various ways of scientific visualization. In debugging, simulating a program execution under test rather than executing natively can detect far more errors than the hardware itself can detect and, at the same time, log useful debugging information such as instruction trace, memory alterations and instruction counts.
This technique can also detect buffer overflow and similar "hard to detect" errors as well as produce performance information and tuning data. Although sometimes ignored in computer simulations, it is very important to perform a sensitivity analysis to ensure that the accuracy of the results is properly understood. For example, the probabilistic risk analysis of factors determining the success of an oilfield exploration program involves combining samples from a variety of statistical distributions using the Monte Carlo method.
If, for instance, one of the key parameters e. The following three steps should be used to produce accurate simulation models: calibration, verification, and validation. Computer simulations are good at portraying and comparing theoretical scenarios, but in order to accurately model actual case studies they have to match what is actually happening today. A base model should be created and calibrated so that it matches the area being studied. The calibrated model should then be verified to ensure that the model is operating as expected based on the inputs.
Once the model has been verified, the final step is to validate the model by comparing the outputs to historical data from the study area. This can be done by using statistical techniques and ensuring an adequate R-squared value. Unless these techniques are employed, the simulation model created will produce inaccurate results and not be a useful prediction tool. Model calibration is achieved by adjusting any available parameters in order to adjust how the model operates and simulates the process.
For example, in traffic simulation, typical parameters include look-ahead distance, car-following sensitivity, discharge headway, and start-up lost time. These parameters influence driver behavior such as when and how long it takes a driver to change lanes, how much distance a driver leaves between his car and the car in front of it, and how quickly a driver starts to accelerate through an intersection. Adjusting these parameters has a direct effect on the amount of traffic volume that can traverse through the modeled roadway network by making the drivers more or less aggressive.
These are examples of calibration parameters that can be fine-tuned to match characteristics observed in the field at the study location. Most traffic models have typical default values but they may need to be adjusted to better match the driver behavior at the specific location being studied. Model verification is achieved by obtaining output data from the model and comparing them to what is expected from the input data.
For example, in traffic simulation, traffic volume can be verified to ensure that actual volume throughput in the model is reasonably close to traffic volumes input into the model. We know how many children they have had before age 34 and we can estimate how many children they will have during their reproductive life. Fertility can be controlled by means of contraception and induced abortion. Information on contraceptive practice in France is obtained through surveys conducted regularly by INED since among the entire female population.
The number of induced abortions is estimated on the basis of abortion notifications and hospital statistics. INED is responsible for publication of abortion statistics. Marriage registers provide a rich source of information on marriage practices: number of marriages, previous marital status and nationality of spouses, etc. The first task in a population census is to enumerate dwellings. Persons living in the same dwelling form a household, so each household comprises all the persons living in a single dwelling.
According to the census definitions, a household may comprise one or more families. Death registers provide a means to measure variations in mortality.
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Deaths by sex and age are used to construct life tables which give life expectancy at birth, i. The mortality of children under the age of one year is also specifically calculated. When a person dies, a doctor records the cause of death on a death certificate which is sent to INSERM where all causes of death are coded.
On this page INED presents an overview of the annual number of entries of foreign citizens who immigrate legally and permanently to France. These immigration flow statistics consider only foreign nationals who are required to obtain a residence permit, and thus exclude citizens of the European Union.
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- Computer Simulation in Human Population Studies - 1st Edition.
- The Simulation of Human Fertility | SpringerLink!
In line with international recommendations, only permits valid for more than one year are taken into account. Population censuses provide an opportunity to count the number of inhabitants who were born outside France. Among foreign-born inhabitants, a distinction is generally made between persons born with French nationality and immigrants, who are born with a different nationality.
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Inhabitants are distinguished by their nationality, i. French or foreign and, among French citizens, those who were born French and those who have been naturalized. The census provides information on current nationality and nationality at birth. Foreigners and immigrants form two different categories. Immigrants "born abroad as a foreign national" may still be foreigners at the time of the census or may have become French. Foreigners, for their part, may have been born abroad in which case they are immigrants or in France in which case they are not immigrants.
This section provides data tables on populations, births and deaths in Europe and in developed countries. It also includes indicators of population change birth and death rates and the two main demographic indicators: the total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth. An atlas, interactive maps, an animated film on migrations and annotated graphs that will enable you to visualize and understand world demographic trends and the issues they involve.
So you think you know everything about population? Check how well you do on our quizzes. Demographic fact sheets offer a brief, clear overview of current knowledge about populations. These materials—teaching kits, analytical notes, and interviews—summarize specific scientific questions and decipher the issues related to population questions.
All of them may be used as tools for introducing students to demographic phenomena and demographic change in France and throughout the world. Rechercher :. About INED The French Institute for Demographic Studies or INED, is a public research institute specialized in population studies that works in partnership with the academic and research communities at national and international levels.
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